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Midday3 min read

Mortgage Rates Ease to 7.32%

Mortgage borrowing became a little cheaper in Thursday’s noon release from Freddie Mac. Its average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.32% from 7.40% a week earlier, while the 15-year average eased to 6.68% from 6.71%. The survey reflects loan applications over the preceding Thursday through Wednesday, so this is a weekly financing update rather than a live quote.

For the housing-related businesses in the Fly High universe, we welcome the direction because a lower payment on a new loan can make a purchase easier to afford. If that relief brings more borrowers into the market, mortgage originators could have more business over which to spread their operating costs. That is a potential earnings benefit, although today’s rate survey establishes neither a rise in completed loans nor an improvement in profits.

The scale keeps our enthusiasm measured. The 30-year average is still above the 6.19% recorded a year earlier, leaving new buyers facing substantially more expensive financing than that comparison suggests. And a lower rate on a newly offered mortgage does not reduce the payment on an existing fixed-rate loan. A homeowner would generally need to refinance, with the new rate and transaction costs determining whether doing so makes sense.

For mortgage real estate investment trusts, which invest in mortgages or securities backed by mortgage payments, the earnings connection runs in both directions. Refinancing can return invested principal sooner, leaving the investor to put that money back to work at the rates then available. The SEC identifies this early repayment risk as an important feature of mortgage-backed securities. A better deal for a homeowner can therefore reduce the income available on the investor’s replacement assets.

Borrowing costs matter alongside that investment income. Today’s retail mortgage survey does not tell us whether a mortgage investor’s own funding became cheaper, how its interest-rate hedges performed or what remains after expenses. Those details determine whether any benefit reaches the earnings behind its dividend, and a fund’s distribution cannot be judged from this mortgage average alone.

Our view is that this is useful but limited relief for housing finance. We would become more positive if lower mortgage rates persist and translate into stronger completed lending with healthy profits after costs. For mortgage investors, the stronger dividend signal would be investment income holding up after funding costs and early repayments. One modest weekly decline earns a welcome, but it does not yet earn a stronger dividend conclusion.

Sources

This article is general information, not personalized investment advice. Fly High Investing may hold securities discussed in this article.

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